Best Rap Album Predictions for the 53rd Grammy Awards (2011)

UPDATE: Damn, I guess Kanye’s untitled fifth album, previously known as Good Ass Job, has been pushed back to October 12th, thus out of the competition for this award. I really wanted to see another Eminem vs. Kanye showdown to see who the Academy would give it to, but I guess the latter will have to wait till 2012.

Update #2: Well, what do ya know? T.I.’s King Uncaged has been pushed back as well, apparently so he can focus more on the promotion of his film Takers. Guess I’ll have to find another replacement.

“But wait, there are tons of more rap albums that are gonna be released by September 31st! How can you already be predicting what’ll be getting nominated?”

Well, the National Academy of Recording Arts and Sciences is notorious for nominating and giving the Best Rap Album award based on how much the album sells instead of the quality of the album itself. So it’s pretty easy to predict this kind of stuff. At times, the Academy actually does give it to the album that deserves the award, but in most cases, the rest of the nominations are jokes, as they pay no attention to superior independent albums. By the way, before I present my list, I’d like to note that the eligibility period is September 1, 2009 to September 30, 2010. So here it is (listed by probability of winning):

1) Recovery by Eminem

With Kanye out of the running, this easily has a very strong chance at winning. All Eminem albums have been nominated (except for Infinite), even when he was at his most  mediocre (Encore). He unsurprisingly won the award last year for Relapse when Mos Def’s The Ecstatic and Q-Tip’s The Renaissance were equally strong competitors, and either of them should’ve won instead in my book. They’ve released so many classics, and they’re time is due. Back on topic, Recovery sold 741,000 copies in its first week and will easily go double platinum by the end of the year; its got two very strong singles so far; and he’s Eminem. So that’s an automatic nomination, no doubt.

2) Thank Me Later by Drake

The newest young talent that was being mentored by Lil Wayne just sold 447,000 copies in its first week! And he was adored by the Academy back in January when they were nominating his “Best I Ever Had” song in every eligible rap category it was able to get nominated in (so did Kid Cudi’s song, but I’ll talk about that later), and he was said to be the next great rap star of the decade. (No doubt, he’ll win Best New Artist, too.) Thank Me Later got pretty decent reviews (how it received better reviews than Recovery is beyond me), but I personally think it sounds repetitive and that he’s just mediocre. Needless to say, my opinion doesn’t matter. Just expect that album to be nominated.

3) The Blueprint 3 by Jay-Z

Uhhh, all of his albums have been nominated since Vol. 2… Hard Knock Life won him his first and only Best Rap Album back in ’99. (The Dynasty: Roc La Familia didn’t get nominated, but that was more of a collaborative album by the Roc-A-Fella roster.) Hell, even his worst album (Kingdom Come) got nominated. But why should that matter when it sold so well? The Blueprint 3 is pretty much the same, and it had that crazy single “Empire State of Mind,” except this time, I think it deserves to get nominated. It’s an awesome album, not his best, but very well above average.

4) B.o.B Presents: The Adventures of Bobby Ray by B.o.B

It’s kind of ironic how, when Kanye was ineligible for this category, Kid Cudi will probably take his place, and now that T.I. is out, he’ll probably be replaced by a rapper on his own Grand Hustle Records. Anyway, this will probably have a better chance of winning than the one below based on the strength of its singles and much positive buzz about his nomination in the Best New Artist category, too (I still think Drake will win). “Nothin’ on You,” “Airplanes,” and “The Magic” have been big hits (even Eminem co-signed the guy), but when you’re up against those three rappers above, and you’re only a rookie, you probably won’t win. (I guess you can say Drake is sort of a rookie as well since Thank Me Later is his first studio album, but there’s just so much hype around him being the next big thing (plus, he’s part of Young Money)).

5) Man on the Moon: The End of Day by Kid Cudi

Well, with Kanye out, I’d expect this to take its place… on the bottom of the list. His “Day ‘N’ Nite” song was also nominated in every eligible rap category it was able to get nominated in, just like Drake, but the album as a whole is just a little unconventional for the Academy’s taste. I mean, sure it’s endorsed by Kanye West, but it didn’t sell as well as expected (the only real hit was “Day ‘N’ Nite”). Therefore, its chance of winning: nada.

Hol’ up! I’m not done yet! Here are the Best Rap Album nominations and winner that, I believe, should be:

1) Only Built 4 Cuban Linx… Pt. II by Raekwon

The best [hip-hop] album sequel of all time should get a nomination, perhaps even win it. This is classic Wu-Tang sound at its best, but it only sold 68,000 copies in its first week, so no nomination here, guys.

2) Sir Lucious Left Foot: The Son of Chico Dynasty by Big Boi

I actually considered the Academy having this nominated. But then I thought back to the ’07 Grammys and Pharrell’s In My Mind got nominated. Then, I was, like, “WTF?” It got extremely mediocre reviews and only sold 142,000 copies in its first week compared to OutKast’s Idlewild, which got mostly positive reviews and sold 196,000 copies in its first week. And I thought, “Why wouldn’t the Academy nominate this when it sold decently, especially after their huge Speakerboxxx/The Love Below win?” Probably because Pharrell was, like, one-half of the biggest producing duo at the time and was releasing his debut album. So the Academy is not completely infatuated with them, and Big Boi’s debut sold far less than Idlewild, so don’t expect a nomination.

3) How I Got Over by The Roots

The Roots always deserve nominations for Best Rap Album. Period. All of their albums are exceptional, but they can never seem to make the best rap album of a year. Nevertheless, like I said, they always deserve a nomination.

4) Distant Relatives by Nas & Damian Marley

Nas and Damian Marley crafted something way too unconventional here: a fusion of reggae and hip-hop. The Academy doesn’t give credit to this kind of stuff, so why start now?

5) Revolutions Per Minute by Reflection Eternal

Talib Kweli and Hi-Tek are a couple of nobodys to the general public, plus it’s an independent release. It’s a fine-ass album, but those two points are the things unfortunately stopping it from getting nominated.

Of course, that’s not it. Lupe Fiasco’s long-delayed Lasers is supposed to be released sometime this year, but his label keeps pushing it back for some reason! Then, there’s Dr. Dre longer-delayed Detox; he’s always saying he’ll release it one year, but then it gets pushed back another year, and back, and back. Where the hell is that “Under Pressure” single, huh? Those two albums, especially the latter, will probably get a nomination (perhaps in the place of King Uncaged) if they’re released before September 31st. Also, according to RZA, GZA’s Liquid Swords 2 is said to be released this fall; judging from OB4CL II, this is supposed to be in the same vein as that, and if it is, it probably won’t get nominated, but deservingly does (or maybe it’ll be released sometime on October or November). And then there’s Ice Cube’s I Am the West. If Cube’s got his game back, he’ll probably get props on my “Best Rap Album nominations that should be” list.

Okay, bye!